Daily US Times: Researchers say almost 90% of coal and 60% of oil and gas reserves must remain in the ground to keep global warming below 1.5C. The researchers have “painted a scenario of the future” that leaves much less room for fossil fuels to be extracted than previously estimated.
The scientists are based on close analysis of global energy supply and demand.
The scientists say that it is a “bleak” but realistic assessment of “what the science tells us is needed”.
Globally, the production of fossil fuels needed to have peaked in 2020 and be on a steady decline of 3% every year until 2050, the researchers calculated.
UCL associate professor of energy systems Dr Steve Pye said: “Through the Covid pandemic, we have seen a large decline in production – but that is bouncing back.”
The research focuses on the amount of energy is required in the world and what the limit must be on carbon emissions.
“We say to our model, ‘Meet all those demands from now until 2100 without emitting too much carbon dioxide,” Dr James Price, also at UCL, said.
“The result we get is a rapid reduction in fossil fuels – and a large amount of fossils fuels [left in the ground] – simply because the carbon budget is so tight.”
The study has been published in the prestigious journal Nature. The study also found the decline in oil and gas production required globally by 2050 – to stick to that tight carbon budget.
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