Daily US Times: Researchers say the world is expected to see a global crash in children being born which is set to have a “jaw-dropping” impact on societies.
Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country in the world could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.
And 23 nations – including Japan and Spain – are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.
Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.
What is it?
The fertility rate means the average number of children a woman gives birth to, Researchers now saying that the fertility rate is falling.
If the number falls below approximately 2.1, then the size of the population starts to fall.
Women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime in 1950s.
Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 – and their study, published in the Lancet, predicted that it will fall below 1.7 by 2100.
As a result, the researchers expect the number of people in this world to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
Researcher Prof Christopher Murray said: “That’s a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline.”
“I think it’s incredibly hard to think this through and recognise how big a thing this is; it’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganise societies.”
Why are fertility rates falling?
It has nothing to do with sperm counts or other usual things that come to people’s mind when discussing fertility.
Instead it is being driven by more women in work and education, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.
Falling fertility rates are a success story in many ways.
Which countries will be most affected?
Japan is going to take a big heat for the change expected. The country’s population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.
Italy is expected to see a jaw-dropping situation, an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe.
They are two of 23 countries – which also include Spain, South Korea, Portugal and Thailand – expected to see their population more than halve.
“That is jaw-dropping,” Prof Christopher Murray told the BBC.
China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
The UK is predicted to peak at 75 million in 2063, and fall to 71 million by 2100.
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