Who is most at risk for the coronavirus disease? How scared should we be? What could be more terrible than this? It is a deadly weapon that we do not see, and when it strikes, it is impossible to treat.
And so naturally many people are afraid to go out, afraid to go back to normal life. There is no end to the fear of even sending children to school.
People want to be safe. But the problem is that we are not as safe as we used to be. A new virus is all around us that can cause terrible consequences.
Balance in risk management
So what can we actually do? Many argue that the ban should remain in place until security is guaranteed. But what these arguments do not contain is that there is a risk in enforcing the ban.
Professor Chris Witty, the UK’s chief health adviser, has often called the issue an “indirect price” for the epidemic. These range from inadequate medical care for diseases other than coronavirus infection to deteriorating mental health, financial strain, and loss of education. And so when sanctions are relaxed, people decide how to balance existing risks.
Why not expect 100% protection
Devi Sridhar, head professor of the Department of Global Health at the University of Edinburgh, said the question that needs to be raised is whether we are really “safe enough”.
There will be no risk – no such time will actually come. Now that there is a disease like Covid-19 in the society, we have to think about how to reduce the risk. The way we deal with other everyday dangers, such as driving or cycling.”
He actually said these things about school, but this idea is equally relevant in other areas of life.
He said part of the whole issue depended on the government ensuring social distance, ensuring protective equipment, facilitating testing and arranging contact tracing in epidemic control. He is critical of the government’s response to the epidemic.
What is the personal risk?
As people are getting more freedom than ever before, the issue of personal decision making is starting to come to the fore more and more. The point is not to find the right way, to make the right decision, but to take the least risky path.
Sir David Spiegelhalter, a risk expert and statistician at the University of Cambridge who is also an adviser to the government, said the whole issue has become a matter of “risk management”. And so there must be a control over the amount of risk we face.
The risk of coronavirus can be twofold
One is our risk of becoming infected and the other is the risk of dying or becoming seriously ill after being infected. According to the country’s national statistics, one out of every four hundred people is infected with the coronavirus.
So the risk of coming in contact with the infected person is very low if the social distance is maintained. At the same time, it is hoped that if the government can properly conduct tests, search for people who have come in contact with the infected person or conduct contact tracing programs properly – this risk will be further reduced.
And even if we do get infected – most people get mild to moderate coronavirus infections. Only one in twenty people develop symptoms that require hospitalization.
What is the way to measure risk?
Those who already have health problems are at higher risk. The study found that people under the age of 65 who had no symptoms died very abnormally. The best way is to ask yourself how worried you are about dying in the next year.
Statistics show that one in every 1,000 people over the age of 40 with a coronavirus infection will not be able to see his or her birthday next year, meaning he or she is at risk of dying at this time.
This is the average risk – but for most people the risk is even lower because those who already have health problems are at the highest risk.
So the coronavirus is taking advantage of all kinds of vulnerabilities and exacerbating them. The fact is that you have to take the risk of an extra year in a very short time. If your risk is low from the start, it will be valid throughout the year.
For example, children have a higher risk of dying from cancer or an accident than those who die from coronavirus. The coronavirus epidemic in the United Kingdom has so far killed only three people under the age of 15. In comparison, 50 people die in road accidents every year.
Who is most at risk?
If we want to balance risk rates, the most important thing right now is to identify those who are most at risk and find out if I belong to that group or if there are anyone around me.
At present, the government has instructed 2.5 million people to remain in complete isolation. Among them are those who have received treatment for organ transplants, cancer or serious chest diseases.
There are also more than one crore people who are at high risk. This includes people aged 60 and over who have health problems such as diabetes or heart disease.
Professor Sarah Harper, a teacher at Oxford University, thinks that risk should not be determined solely by age, but should be taken into account. Because the level of risk of these people at high risk is not the same.
University College London is continuing its efforts to understand the differences in this risk rate. Because in the coming days such information will become necessary.
Coronavirus ‘may never be eradicated’: WHO
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the novel coronavirus ‘may never be eradicated from the earth’. When will the virus be eradicated, the World Health Organization’s Director of Emergency Affairs Dr. Mike Ryan warned to express the idea on May, 13.
He says that even if the antidote is available, ‘massive efforts’ must be made to control the virus. So far, more than 4.3 million people worldwide have been infected with the virus, and about three million have died.
Dr. Ryan said in Geneva Virtual Press Conference. This virus can stay with us as a racial disease and may never be completely eradicated. HIV has not been eradicated either. But we have been able to coexist with that virus.
Dr. Ryan added that he did not want to believe that anyone could have an idea of when the virus would be eradicated.
At present, there are at least 100 attempts to develop a possible coronavirus antidote. However, Dr. Ryan reminded that the discovery of the antidote does not guarantee the extinction of the virus.
He noted that the measles vaccine was discovered long ago, but measles has not yet disappeared from the face of the earth.
The risk of the second round of infection would remain
World Health Organization Secretary-General Tedros Ghebreissas, however, expressed optimism about controlling the virus through concerted efforts.
Its direction is in our hands and it is a headache for all of us. The contribution of all of us is important in stopping this epidemic.
World Health Organization pathologist Maria Van Karkhov said in a briefing: It will take time for us to get out of this epidemic situation, we must be mentally prepared for it.
World Health Organization (WHO) officials made the remarks at a time when countries are gradually easing their lockdown and many more leaders are considering opening up their economies.
Dr. Tedros warned that if the travel ban was lifted, the risk of the second round of infection would remain. Many countries would like to relax precautionary measures. But we recommend that any country should still be on high alert.
Dr. Ryan warned: Many people think that the lockdown was 100% effective and that the situation would be better if the lockdown was lifted. Both of these ideas are very risky.
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